English Summary: The analysis updates the analysis on economic activity in Greece published in September 2015 with the most recent unemployment figures published today by the Hellenic Statistical Authority and the economic activity indicator calculated according to the method by Claus Köhler, former member of the German Council of Economic Experts. A method the author employs regularly to estimate the development of economic activity in a monthly analysis of the business cycle in Germany, France, Switzerland and the United States. The article criticises the focus on Greece´s stock exchange by German media as well as the focus on Varoufakis and his new so called Democracy in Europe Movement. The so called Manifest of that movement, by the way, doesn´t mention at all the word employ, which contains any word concerning employment or unemployment. Not only against this background the author concludes that Varoufakis offers not a solution to the crisis but is rather an expression of the crisis. The focus should rather be on the close correlation between economic activity and unemployment which – as the analysis proves – holds true for Greece, too, in the longterm as well as in the short term examination.
Tag Archiv für Varoufakis
The agreement Tsipras signed with the international creditors and pushes now through the Greek parliament most likely bears not only negative economic consequences. The measures they agreed upon are in stark contrast to the referendum Tsipras did initiate before the negotiations (to both issues see here). This radical abuse of confidence weighs particularly heavy, since it must seriously disappoint all those millions Greeks who felt once again politically activated by the referendum. Many of them once again drew hope from it. Many of them once again overcame the lethargy imposed on them by more than six years of austerity and its forlornness. The deeper will be the backslide that Tsipras triggered with his electoral fraud. I wonder where the outcry of the left is, e.g. in Germany, in Spain, in France. They only refer to the matter of fact that the Greek government has been blackmailed by the international creditors, first of all Germany. We have analysed and condemned this, too. However, how can it be that the left, who is otherwise always criticising the conservatives on their TINA (There Is No Alternative) principle, means that this time there has been no alternative?
Am frühen Nachmittag ist tatsächlich auch rund um den zentralen Syntagma Square festzustellen, dass Menschen vor den Bankautomaten stehen. Bis heute Mittag war das noch nicht der Fall. Und schon geben auch die ersten Automaten kein Geld mehr heraus. Von einem Bankrun kann aber meines Erachtens immer noch nicht die Rede sein. Denn es herrscht kein Gedränge, keine Panik, nichts von alledem. Als ich eine Griechin, die ich von der anderen Straßenseite aus bei dem Versuch gesehen habe, Geld abzuhaben, frage, ob sie noch etwas herausbekommen hat, lacht sie und verneint. Dennoch ist die Sorge in der Bevölkerung sicherlich groß. Zurecht.
It was more or less clear from the beginning (see our scenarios written on 23rd January 2015 here) that the EU Commission, the IMF and the ECB, not to forget the national governments, will not compromise on their declared policy prescriptions for Greece. The fault of the Greek government under Tsipras and Varoufakis was, as well from the beginning, to focus on debt and other financial matters, too, rather than on unemployment and the violation of the ECB´s inflation target by Germany (see here). However, the recent weeks should have make it clear even for them that there is no way out but to leave the European Monetary Union. Why then they are playing still that game which is already lost?
Today all online editions of the main German newspapers have opend with the same message: Greece has to cut wages and pensions, because tax income has shrunk (see for example here, here and here). The problem with this message is that it leads the reader in the wrong direction. Since what counts and leads direct to the root of the Greek economic and social nightmare is that tax income has shrunk because wages and pensions were cut. The latter was part of the programme the former Greek government implemented under the pressure of the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB).
Was haben der Chef-Ökonom des IWF, Olivier Blanchard, und der griechische Finanzminister, Yanis Varoufakis, gemeinsam? Während die griechische Bevölkerung darbt und die Massenarbeitslosigkeit grassiert, beschäftigen sich beide ein weiteres Mal mit Staatsschulden und Schuldenschnitt. Warum fällt es aber nicht wenigstens Varoufakis ein, die Arbeitslosigkeit zum Ausgangspunkt zu wählen und die zu ihrer Überwindung notwendigen Finanzierungsbedingungen und wirtschaftspolitischen Rahmenbedingungen zu bestimmen und einzufordern?